India rupee inches higher; month-end dlr demand offsets inflows : 26.11.2014

India rupee inches higher; month-end dlr demand offsets inflows

 

FACTORS TO WATCH

 

 * Australian dlr slides to 4-yr low against greenback

 * Oil slump reverberates after Nigeria currency devaluation

 * ECB outlook lifts Europe shrs, Australian dlr sags

 * Foreign institutional investor flows

 * For data on currency futures

 

* Rupee ends at 61.8450/8550 per dlr vs 61.86/87 on Tuesday

* INR seen in 61.70 to 62.10 range until end of week -trader

* Rate cut by India cbank may boost foreign fund flows, rupee

The Indian rupee closed marginally stronger on Wednesday after being held in a tight range as dollar inflows into the domestic share markets were offset by demand for the greenback from importers looking to meet month-end commitments.
Sentiment was also cautious ahead of the release of July-September economic growth data on Friday and the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review on December 2.India economic growth probably slowed to 5.1 percent in the July-September quarter from a year ago, but economists polled by Reuters doubted whether that would be enough to persuade the central bank to cut interest rates just yet. "We are likely to see the rupee in a 61.70 to 62.10 range this week as rising dollar demand towards month-end may hurt the rupee," "Rupee resistance has now gradually shifted to 61.50 from 60.00 earlier as we see good dollar buying from exporters and the RBI at that level. We are likely to see the rupee remaining broadly stable between 61.50 to 62.50 until year-end," he added. The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.8450/8550 per dollar versus Tuesday's close of 61.86/87. Moves in the domestic share market will also be crucial for cues on foreign fund flows. Shares gained for a fourth session in five, led by blue chips on hopes the central bank would cut its key policy rate. In the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, the one-month contract was at 62.20 while the three-month was at 62.73.

 

India rupee gains on corporate, custodian bank dlr sales

FACTORS TO WATCH

 

 * Yen gains as some BoJ policymakers fret about QE costs

 * Solid yen, yuan rebound aids Asia FX; won firmer

 * Asian shares slip, oil falls ahead of OPEC

 * Foreign institutional investor flows

 * For data on currency futures

 

* Rupee ends at 61.86/87 per dlr vs 61.9350/9450 on Mon

* Gains in other Asian currencies aid sentiment for the rupee

* INR seen staying volatile until policy - trader

The Indian rupee gained on Tuesday after a volatile trading session as dollar selling by custodian banks and a large corporate helped offset importer demand for the greenback.
Traders said gains were also helped by higher Asian currencies on the back of strength in the Japanese yen and a rebound in the Chinese yuan. But sentiment is expected to turn

 more cautious ahead of the upcoming July-September economic growth data on Friday and the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review on Dec. 2. India's economic growth

probably slowed to around 5 percent in the three months to September, slipping from 5.7 percent in the previous quarter, two senior finance ministry sources told Reuters,

putting pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.

"There was good dollar buying interest seen from importers but good flows with custodian banks helped. We could see this seesaw in the rupee continue until the policy,"

said Vikas Babu Chittiprolu, a senior foreign exchange dealer with Andhra Bank.

The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.86/87 per dollar versus Monday's close of 61.9350/9450. Traders are broadly expecting the rupee to hold in a 61.50 to 62.50 range

 until the RBI policy next Tuesday, with most expecting no change in interest rates but only a more dovish policy tone from the RBI. However, gains in the rupee were capped as

 shares fell, retreating from a record high hit earlier in the session as financial firms slumped on worries parliament would delay an insurance bill, while new rules for offshore

derivatives raised worries over foreign flows. In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 62.16 while the three-month was at 62.27.

India rupee weakens as state-run banks buy dlrs; euro fall weighs

* Rupee ends at 61.9350/9450 per dollar vs 61.7625/7725 on Friday

* Heavy dollar demand from state-run banks hurts rupee

* INR may soon move towards 62.50 levels

 
 The Indian rupee weakened on Monday on sustained buying of dollars by state-run banks and importers even as most other Asian currencies rallied on hopes of more foreign flows after monetary stimulus measures in China and Europe.
The sharp fall in the euro following the stimulus talks however weighed on rupee sentiment.Traders expect currency markets to remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy review on Dec. 2. The central bank is expected to adopt a more dovish tone but is seen as unlikely to cut interest rates until February..India is also due to report July-September economic growth data on Friday, adding to the caution.."There was very good demand for dollars from state-run banks which hurt the rupee today," said Hari Chandramgethen, head of foreign exchange trading at South Indian Bank, predicting a range of 61.50 to 62.50 for the rest of the week.

The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.9350/9450 per dollar compared to 61.7625/7725 on Friday..The fall came even as domestic shares hit a record high after China unexpectedly cut rates and as prospects of further stimulus in China and Europe whetted risk appetite globally.Prospect of further reforms at the start of the winter session of parliament on Monday could also prevent much further depreciation in the rupee, traders said, especially as the RBI is seen intervening to keep the rupee from dipping too much below 62 per dollar..In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 62.20 while the three-month was at 62.74.

FACTORS TO WATCH

 

* Euro near 2-yr low as investors bet on more ECB easing

* China easing puts emerging stocks in buoyant mood

* Stocks grind higher after cbank stimulus signal

* Foreign institutional investor flows

* For data on currency futures

 

INDIAN CURRENCY INTRADAY SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVELS: 25.Nov.2014


USDINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Buy Zone and it is showing Strength. It is expected to test Resistance levels 62.06 / 62.18 / 62.38 . And the lower side , it has Strong Support @ 61.86 downside, it may tank to near support Levels such as 61.75 / 61.55 / 61.43 . Currently USDINR is Trading @ 61.95


EURINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Buy Zone and it is showing Strength. It is expected to test Resistance levels 77.07 / 77.23 / 77.53 . And the lower side , it has Strong Support @ 76.76 downside, it may tank to near support Levels such as 76.60 / 76.30 / 76.13 . Currently EURINR is Trading @ 76.90


GBPINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Buy Zone and it is showing Strength. It is expected to test Resistance levels 97.27 / 97.50 / 97.86 . And the lower side , it has Strong Support @ 96.91 downside, it may tank to near support Levels such as 96.69 / 96.33 / 96.11 . Currently GBPINR is Trading @ 97.05

 

JPYINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Sell Zone and it is showing weakness. It is expected to test near Support levels 52.33 / 52.23 / 52.15 . And the upperside, it has Strong Resistance @ 52.41 upperside, it may test Resistance Levels such as 52.52 / 52.60 / 52.70 . Currently JPYINR is Trading @ 52.44

 

 

Live Currency News - 13.Nov.2014

GLOBAL MARKETS ROUNDUP

    * Asian shares mostly steadied on Thursday as investors

awaited a flurry of Chinese economic indicators later in the

day, but energy stocks slumped after oil prices fell to

four-year lows.

    * The dollar took time out from its rally against the yen

and euro early on Thursday as traders awaited a batch of Chinese

and U.S. data, while the British pound languished at 14-month

lows versus its U.S. peer after dovish messages from the Bank of

England.

    * Benchmark Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel on Wednesday

for the first time since 2010 on technical selling, pressure

from a strong dollar and after Saudi Arabia's oil minister

refused to say if the kingdom will support calls from some OPEC

members to cut crude output.

    * U.S. Treasuries prices traded mostly flat on Wednesday,

erasing early gains, after the bond market absorbed $24 billion

in new supply of benchmark U.S. government debt.

                   

    LOCAL MARKETS PREVIOUS CLOSE

    * BSE index 28,008.90 (up 0.35 pct)

    * NSE index 8,383.30 (up 0.25 pct)

    * Rupee 61.4925/5000 per dlr (61.55/56)

    * 10-year bond yield 8.16 pct (8.19 pct) 

    * 5-year OIS rate 7.40 pct (7.41 pct)

    * 1-year OIS rate 7.99 pct (8.01 pct)

    * Call money 7.40/7.50 pct (8.80/8.90 pct)

   

    KEY FACTORS TO WATCH

    * India trade data to be released by Nov. 14, there is no

fixed date for the release of the data.

    * India central bank chief Raghuram Rajan to talk at a

microfinance event at 10 a.m.

   

    OVERNIGHT NEWS

    * India's economic outlook brightened on Wednesday with a

surprise pickup in industrial output and further cooling in

consumer prices, data showed, boosting Prime Minister Narendra

Modi's bid to end the longest slowdown in growth in decades.

 

   

    KEY DEALS

    * Indian generic drugmaker Aurobindo Pharma Ltd

said its U.S. unit won a bankruptcy auction to buy nutritional

supplements maker Natrol Inc for $132.5 million.

         

    USD/INR NDFs (NY closing prices)

    For up-to-date prices, double click PNDF

     Open     High     Low       Close      Volume

    61.79    61.75    61.66     61.68-69      N/A

 

    FII INVESTMENTS-EQUITIES (Net dollars)

    Nov 12*                       $74.80 mln

    Month-to-date**                $1.36 bln

    Year-to-date**                $15.06 bln

    * Provisional NSE data        

    ** Source: Data as per the latest custodial filing as on

Nov. 12 on NSDL's website.

 

    FII INVESTMENTS-DEBT (Net Dollars)  Debt

    Nov. 11                    $225.35 mln                   

    Month-to-date              $597.30 mln

    Year-to-date                $23.14 bln

    * Source: Data as per latest custodial filing as on Nov 12

on NSDL's website.

                             

    GOVERNMENT SECURITIES TRADING (Net buy/sell, in rupees)

                                          Nov 12

    Foreign Banks                        28.90 bln

    Public Sector Banks                 -50.99 bln

    Private Sector Banks                  0.92 bln

    Mutual Funds                         95.28 bln

    Others                               -5.14 bln

    Primary Dealers                      16.79 bln

    

    LIQUIDITY

    * The Reserve Bank of India said on Wednesday it accepted

all 43 bids for 178.49 billion rupees ($2.90 billion) at its

one-day repo auction, through which it injects liquidity into

the banking system.

    * Indian banks' refinancing with RBI rises to 93.70 billion

rupees.

    * Indian banks' cash balances with RBI rise to 3.55 trillion

rupees.

 

Usdinr Free Tips : 12.Nov.2014

Usdinr Free Tips :  12.Nov.2014


USDINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Sell Zone and it is showing weakness. It is expected to test near Support levels 61.62 / 61.58 / 61.52 . And the upperside, it has Strong Resistance @ 61.68 upperside, it may test Resistance Levels such as 61.72 / 61.78 / 61.82 . Currently USDINR is Trading @ 61.66


EURINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Sell Zone and it is showing weakness. It is expected to test near Support levels 76.73 / 76.49 / 76.32 . And the upperside, it has Strong Resistance @ 76.90 upperside, it may test Resistance Levels such as 77.13 / 77.30 / 77.54 . Currently EURINR is Trading @ 76.96


GBPINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Sell Zone and it is showing weakness. It is expected to test near Support levels 97.55 / 97.35 / 96.98 . And the upperside, it has Strong Resistance @ 97.92 upperside, it may test Resistance Levels such as 98.13 / 98.50 / 98.70 . Currently GBPINR is Trading @ 97.76


JPYINR ( 26-Nov-14 ) Enters in to Buy Zone and it is showing Strength. It is expected to test Resistance levels 53.68 / 53.80 / 53.99 . And the lower side , it has Strong Support @ 53.50 downside, it may tank to near support Levels such as 53.38 / 53.19 / 53.07 . Currently JPYINR is Trading @ 53.57